| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Northern Arizona | 38-19 | 1865.2 | -45.6 | 1819.6 | 96.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 20-24 | 1819.6 | -26.7 | 1792.9 | 67.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Texas State | 34-15 | 1792.9 | +44.7 | 1837.6 | 66.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Baylor | 27-24 | 1837.6 | +14.9 | 1852.5 | 56.9% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | W | TCU | 27-24 | 1852.5 | +3.2 | 1855.7 | 47.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Utah | 10-42 | 1847.2 | -64.1 | 1783.1 | 41.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Texas Tech | 26-22 | 1783.1 | +31.4 | 1814.5 | 18.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Houston | 16-24 | 1814.5 | -23.4 | 1791.1 | 62.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Iowa State | 24-19 | 1791.1 | +22.0 | 1813.1 | 42.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | West Virginia | 25-23 | 1813.8 | -17.2 | 1796.6 | 74.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Colorado | 42-17 | 1796.6 | +28.2 | 1824.8 | 73.4% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Arizona | 7-23 | 1824.8 | -26.0 | 1798.8 | 44.9% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Duke | 39-42 | 1802.9 | -12.0 | 1790.9 | 58.1% |