| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Morgan State | 70-7 | 1604.8 | +96.2 | 1701.0 | 99.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Texas A&M | 20-48 | 1701.0 | -35.6 | 1665.4 | 22.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Kansas | 24-17 | 1665.4 | -5.8 | 1659.6 | 63.9% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | Baylor | 19-55 | 1653.9 | -45.5 | 1608.4 | 47.9% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | W | Hawai'i | 30-12 | 1608.4 | +5.3 | 1613.7 | 84.2% |